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Looking ahead to 2019
We find ourselves once again grateful and honored to have received our clients’ continuous support during last year. Looking back to 2018; one year ago, we have been predicting that we shall have a firm 2018 with monthly fluctuations and marginally higher freight rates and we were not so far off the mark. 2018 has partly met the expectations but the things could have turned even worse for Owners without the newly found, but still fragile balance between supply & demand. Baltic rates ended the year lower than twelve months prior whereas Black Sea rates did not rocket during the summer months and remained volatile. The absence of the traditional increase of rates during the last quarter and any real gains compared to the end of 2017, left even the most optimistic Owners with a lot of questions about what to expect from 2019. The development of GDP growth in the EU is one of the important drivers of the short sea shipping but unfortunately GDP growth is in a clear down trend. From 2.4% in 2017 which was a peak, European Commission mentions for 2018 2.1%, for 2019 1.9% and their forecast for 2020 is 1.7%. Another negative point is the barely sustainable levels of public debt which should cause more alarm in some EU economies. The public debt of Italy is now 132% of GDP which places Italy officially in recession. If you also consider the possible impact of a BREXIT (if any), the conditions are not set for a healthy environment in 2019 that allows rising cargo volumes and more employment of vessels and, in the... lire la suiteLooking ahead to 2018
2017 has been a year of records for AESA Chartering with a significant increase on number of fixtures concluded and cargoes shipped having reached almost 900 000 tons! We are truly thankful to our Clients for their continuous support! Looking back to 2017; (previous report still available on our website), last year this time we predicted that Owners had good reasons to hope for slowly increasing freight rates. Indeed, after running from crisis to crisis since 2008 and having suffered the worst years in 2015 & 2016, Owners finally began a small recovery during 2017. Starting from July and accelerating in August, freight rates increased by 10-15% on all short-sea trades, though part of the increase has been absorbed immediately by higher bunker prices. Still, there were hardly any spot positions on the market during the last quarter and Owners were routinely achieving better rates. But in overall, 2017 remained as a manageable year for Charterers. One cannot simply explain the reasons of increasing freight rates with the growing world economy or increasing trade volumes. They certainly are important and been positive in 2017 but still too modest and fragile. Neither this can be directly related to the rebalancing of fleet against demand which will still take some years to realize. In our opinion, Short-Sea trade is changing and the faith of freight rates are closely linked to the regional demand. New type of cargoes with huge volumes, such as wood pellets/chips (just to name here a few) being carried by coastal fleet which is absorbing tonnage availability in Baltic Sea as most of the power stations in Europe are... lire la suiteLooking ahead to 2017
We are extremely grateful to our Clients for their trust & support. We have shipped over 600 000 tons of cargoes in 2016. THANK YOU VERY MUCH! A thrilling new year has just commenced for ‘AESA Chartering’! Not only because we are going celebrate the 5th anniversary of the company, but also we will be moving our main office from French Alps to the French Atlantic coast, close to the ports of Nantes, Saint-Nazaire & Montoir. Also, we shall announce soon the establishment of our new chartering office in Istanbul, leaded by ‘Erdinc Bektas’ having 30 years of experience in fixing ships and a true expert of Black Sea & Mediterranean freight markets. Looking back to 2016, it is important to underline a few facts concerning the freight markets. Without exception, all Dry Indexes (Capes, Panamaxes, Supramaxes & Handies) rise from multiyear lows to multiyear highs. Capesize Index finished the year at slightly over 1 000, doubling its value compared to January 2016 (below 500). Between September & November spot rates were flirting with levels not seen since late 2014. Panamaxes followed a slow but steady upward trend for the entirety of 2016 that saw the final three months of the year bring freights to levels not seen since 2010. Supramax index peaked at 972 in Mid-December, the highest since two years and even rivalling Panamax rates. Handysizes had a year of unending improvement as the BHSI went from 200 levels to triple over the course of the year to surpass 600 by the end of it. The year ended with high sentiment due to the continued attractiveness for... lire la suiteLooking ahead to 2016
Despite weak economic growth across Europe, despite geopolitical tensions, sanctions against Russia, disorders in the Middle-East, commodity prices being at lowest levels, debt crisis in Greece, AESA Chartering once again succeeded to ship close to 600.000 tons of cargoes during 2015 with the support of our clients and partners in the shipping world. THANK YOU ALL! We have been regularly pointing out the oversupply of tonnage against actual demand. Let’s underline this year that the fleet growth of bulk carriers has been the lowest since last 10 years which at about 2.5% is on course to reach parity with the trade growth. Unfortunately that does not settle the problem! Scrap prices and bunker prices being at lowest, Owners of older ships are keeping their rust buckets trading instead of scrapping. The situation is worse for containers. Total container fleet has grown by about 8.5% in 2015 while demand rose by some 2.5%, therewith widening the gap even more between supply and demand. We see more and more Container and MPP vessels hunting for dry bulk cargoes, seeking desperately alternative sources of revenue. Capes & Panamaxes ended the year 2015 at lower levels then where they started back in January. The things had begun on an encouraging note for Owners with rates climbing during the first weeks but we saw the situation turning swiftly with rates slipping even below operating costs for Owners. The Handy bulkers also faced day-by-day reductions on freights, leaving Owners without negotiation power. By the end of the year Charterers were able to push rates ever lower as demand faded almost everywhere. For our Short Sea trade,... lire la suiteLooking ahead to 2015
Thanks to the continuous support of our clients, AESA Chartering has once again concluded a successful year in 2014 with over 600.000 tons of cargoes shipped. We are also proud of having finalized our web site where you can find a copy of this report and the previous issues. Just in case you have not seen it yet, you can simply click on: www.aesachartering.fr The bullish end of 2013, not seen in several years, had given hopes to many that the freight rates in short-sea trade will continue to pick up during 2014 but apart from a very firm 1st quarter all other predictions proved only to be illusions. As from April, freight rates came back to the same levels as we have seen during 2nd & 3rd quarters of 2013 and never really returned to the higher levels despite the ‘usual end of year activity’ of freight markets. Nevertheless Owners enjoyed during the last quarter a slight increase of freight rates and falling bunker prices (over 30% decrease during the last 12 months). With such low bunker prices it is hard to imagine that ‘low Sulphur requirements’ in force as from 1st January 2015 shall have any immediate effect on the freight rates. The most disturbing news are from Russia; with the falling rubble, falling oil prices and recent restrictions for grain exports. On 18th December Russian Railway stopped loading grain cargoes for Russian Sea and river ports and grain exporters announcing a temporary stoppage in grain exports. The grain cargo traffic represents generally about 70/80% of the Black Sea market. During the last quarter of 2014 also... lire la suiteLooking ahead to 2014
We are truly thankful to our clients for their kind support which leaded ‘AESA Chartering’ to a successful year in 2013 with almost 600.000 tons of cargoes shipped. How about some pearls of wisdom concerning 2014? We wish you good reading and much success in the New Year. The only surprise of 2013 has been the volume of grain exports from Black Sea and it will probably continue until March 2014. There has been no ban from Russia for exports and their grain production exceed 90 million tons. The Ukrainian corn harvest also registered records. Winter sowings are encouraging producers to set very close targets for next year’s harvest, which means the Black Sea grain supply may remain strong until April 2015. However traditional Black Sea tonnage becoming older and older and a large number of Charterers require younger vessels. This situation is attracting more European Owners with shallow draft and ice classed ships to profit of the high paying grain cargoes out of Black Sea and creating, as we noticed during the last quarter of 2013, a lack of vessel supply in Mediterranean which led to increases on freight levels. This is the first time since long we noticed some sort of stability between vessel supply and demand. Can the autumn optimism may change to a disappointing reality for Owners very soon? I really don’t think so, as we cannot explain everything with the volume of grain exports from Black Sea. This may just not be seasonal or a geographical bubble and it may just not fizzle out somehow though I expect a decline in freight rates between... lire la suiteLooking ahead to 2013
While hoping to recover from financial crises in Europe, though the wheels of the European economy are turning very slowly, let’s look forward with some wisdom of experience. There is no prophesy in what you are going to read but a bunch of thoughts about the facts which have, which are and which will affect the short sea freight markets during the year 2013. I expect very difficult conditions for coaster fleet Owners for the first six months of 2013, perhaps the toughest we have seen yet. For the fourth consecutive year financial results of many companies in EU short sea industry are negative. Many Owners who have managed to make it out alive in 2012 may not be able to survive this period and I am especially worried that this may hold true for some German and Dutch fleets. Distressed Owners are continuing to sell out their fleet for some pennies and many new players, mainly cash buyers, are entering the coaster freight market. Most of the Owners are struggling not to lay up their ships and try to keep them trading as far as the ships can earn above the break even. The Dutch and German Owners are sending their fleets to areas with stronger economic growth and it increases their appearance not only in Black Sea and Mediterranean freight markets but also in South-East Asian markets and Caribbean markets, which gives them a low but a secure freight income and brings more efficient fleet to these markets. The Black Sea grain crop for the second half 2012 was very low which was partly a cause of... lire la suite
